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Industry Information: How much room is there for arbitrage between the PVC area and BD?

Views : 692
Author : HAODIBAN
Update time : 2023-03-13 13:40:42

As far as the PVC industry is concerned, there are three types of prices in China: the price difference of the main sales area, the price difference of the production and sales area, and the price difference of second-generation electricity. The regional price difference has both historical trends and new features. The return of the price difference between production and sales areas also has a significant impact on the market, while the change in the basis difference is the focus of market participants. PVC is one of the main raw materials for PVC flooring. Manufacturers, we will also pay attention to the industry information of PVC. 

Larger price changes in East China

 Price difference between East China market and South China market by calcium carbide method
Price difference between East China market and South China market by calcium carbide method

Prices in the East China region fluctuate more frequently than in other regions due to more competition from traders, dense warehouses, and pricing. From the perspective of the annual calculation, the price difference between East China and North China is around 100 yuan most of the time. Futures trading is based on expectations. Due to the Spring Festival factor, the situation will often be lower than expected after the year, and the price difference will be narrowed or the negative value will appear directly.

South China Arrival Concentration

Price difference between East China market and North China market by calcium carbide method
Price difference between East China market and North China market by calcium carbide method

The price difference between South China and East China in recent years is usually more than 50 yuan/ton under normal circumstances, and special time periods generally appear in spring and autumn. Due to the special transportation mode in South China, it will lead to the characteristics of concentrated arrival and short-term shortage of goods, which will lead to low prices in South China. The situation in East China. 

The extreme value of the price difference between the main production area and the main sales area appears for a short time

The pattern of production in the west and sales in the east of China's PVC industry has led to a price difference between the main production area and the main sales area. Also, due to the sales model of PVC enterprises and their emphasis on discourse power, there is a certain lag in the price drop and price rise stages. Feedback to the price difference is the extreme value of the price difference in the obvious stage of market fluctuations.

Narrowing of basis space

 Calcium carbide method and futures main contract basis in East China
Calcium carbide method and futures main contract basis in East China

For the basis difference, the narrowing of space is not only the disadvantage of narrowing profits, but also has the advantage of relatively clear profit stop points. However, for the current situation of large inventory that has continued from 2022 to the present, the downstream and downstream voices of the buyer's market have increased, so sales problems It is also very important.

To sum up, there is a corresponding extreme value in the price difference in the spring, which is mainly caused by the sales pressure after the Spring Festival. The regional price difference and the price difference between the production and sales area are both caused by the high frequency conversion in the main sales area, and have been prominent over the years, so the layout can be made in advance. In terms of basis, it is mainly considered that there are special opportunities when the market fluctuates sharply. If the market is relatively stable, what the seller needs is more downstream and point control.
 

The HAODIBAN brand is a supplier of PVC flooring coils in China. We continue to provide high-quality PVC coiled flooring products to customers all over the world. We have our own flooring factory, R&D room, laboratory, etc., and have a professional PVC roll flooring team. We are in Floor R&D, production and sales have always maintained a high degree of specialization. Up to now, we have cooperated with customers around the world, and achieved a win-win situation in the process of cooperation.