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The PVC cost pressure increases, the price of liquid alkali continues to fall, the gross profit of the chlor-alkali + PVC industry decreases, the loss increases, and high-cost production enterprises face the risk of load adjustment.
It is expected that the short-term center of gravity will move down slightly, mainly due to the pressure on shipments.
Poor macro expectations, the domestic PVC spot market continues to fluctuate, and downstream purchases are insufficient. Downstream product orders also began to show signs of off-season, especially in central China, southwest and north China, where the transaction volume was not as good as before.
The overall domestic PVC market is also heading towards the off-season.
There are accumulated PVC warehouses, and the factory warehouses continue to go to the warehouse
As of last week, the preliminary statistics of the warehouse inventory of PVC production enterprises decreased by about 5% month-on-month; it increased by 175% year-on-year. Among them, the inventory of calcium carbide factory warehouses decreased month-on-month, while the inventory of ethylene methods increased month-on-month. However, social inventories in East China and South China have accumulated slightly.
Downstream start trend chart
PVC product enterprises start to increase, and the inventory of products is still high
PVC product enterprises have slightly improved their start-up, and the start-up of cables, films and pipes in the industry is better than other industries. The profile start-up load is partially increased, but the range is limited. The inventory cycle of raw materials ranges from 10 to 30 days. Enterprises receive goods according to orders and are resistant to high prices. The product inventory cycle ranges from 15-25 days, some of which are pending orders, and some large enterprises have slightly higher product inventory. The market's expectations for real estate are weak, and it is difficult to improve profiles, and some enterprises have increased exports.
The start of work in the calcium carbide area is limited, and the short-term supply is expected to increase
The regional supply of domestic calcium carbide market is obvious, and the supply capacity of Wuhai and Gansu regions is generally stronger. However, affected by regional power cuts in Ningxia region, the start of business is limited, and the supply is tight. It is expected that next week, with the recovery of previous maintenance companies, the market supply will increase, and some areas will experience inventory accumulation.
On the whole, the fundamentals of China PVC have not improved. Some enterprises have increased production and new devices have increased production. Overall, production has remained high. Downstream demand has not changed due to the impact of the consumption environment in the terminal market. The housing market has started new construction and product exports are mainly stable, and it is difficult to add bright spots. The cost pressure is increasing, the price of liquid caustic soda continues to fall, the gross profit of the chlor-alkali + PVC industry decreases, the loss increases, and high-cost production enterprises face the risk of load adjustment. It is expected that the center of gravity will move down slightly, mainly due to the pressure on shipments.
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