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Downstream demand is weak and stable, and foreign trade export orders are expected to improve. In addition, the second quarter is traditionally the peak season for PVC demand. Prices are expected to rise slightly in the second quarter; however, the rate is still affected by high inventory.
Analysis of PVC Market in South China in the First Quarter
South China PVC spot price trend comparison chart
Yuan / ton
In the first quarter of 2023, the PVC market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Taking South China as an example, the mainstream average price of five types of PVC in the South China market was 6,340 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 2.79% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.94%.
The first stage (January): Shocking rise. In January, driven by favorable policies such as real estate and domestic consumption, the confidence of market operators increased, and macro expectations strengthened. Traders actively raised their quotations. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the actual transactions on the market not much;
The second stage (early February to mid-February): the market returns to weak real trading, the macroeconomic factors are gradually digested, the price drops rapidly, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the contradiction between PVC supply and demand is obvious;
The third stage (mid-February to early March): In the second half of the month, the real estate policy is adjusted, the market mentality improves, and the spot market keeps rising, but the high price suppresses the enthusiasm of downstream purchases, and the transaction is slightly insufficient;
The fourth stage (March): The overall situation fluctuated and fell, there were not many upstream inspections, the domestic PVC supply was sufficient, the inventory digestion was slow, and the high inventory formed a certain bearish pressure on the market. The downstream was mainly replenished at low prices, and the transaction was not obvious. With heavy volume and lack of favorable support in the market, the price is under pressure and goes down.
PVC price forecast in the second quarter
South China PVC spot price trend comparison chart
Yuan / ton
It is expected that the PVC market will fall first and then rise in the second quarter. Judging from the current maintenance plan of enterprises, the spring maintenance peak in April-May will bring phased benefits, the fundamentals of PVC are expected to improve, the overall industry start-up may drop to around 74%, the market supply will slow down, but at the same time, new PVC production capacity will be released , the output brought about by maintenance is reduced or limited; the downstream demand performance is weak and stable, foreign trade export orders are expected to improve, and the second quarter is traditionally the peak season for PVC demand, the price is expected to rise slightly in the second quarter; but the rate is still affected by high inventory. Focus on macro factors and changes in demand.
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