Industry Information: The double increase of supply and demand, the PVC market fluctuates

In the later period, the domestic PVC market continued to compete with supply and demand. PVC production enterprises started to increase slowly, and new production capacity was released. Industry profit expectations are under pressure, cost pressures are superimposed on forward maintenance seasons, market supply weakens, and market prices fluctuate.

Affected by the China Securities Regulatory Commission’s launch of the real estate private equity investment fund pilot, the market sentiment has improved, and the downstream demand has improved recently. Give the market some support, but at present, the PVC industry has started to operate at a high level, and the inventory pressure is relatively high. The domestic PVC market continues to operate under pressure, and the price is still under great pressure to break through.

From the perspective of the supply side, enterprises are currently operating at a high level. According to data, the preliminary statistics of the inventory of PVC manufacturers' warehouses decreased by 2% month-on-month; it doubled year-on-year, of which the ethylene method decreased by about 9% month-on-month, and the calcium carbide method decreased by 1% month-on-month. There is no clear time for the spring inspection plan of PVC enterprises. In addition, some new production capacity is still put on the market in the near future, and the supply side continues to show an increasing trend.

 PVC downstream start trend chart

From the perspective of demand, the start-up of PVC product companies has gradually increased, and the start-up of cable companies and medium and large pipe companies has increased. From the perspective of domestic PVC profile enterprises, the overall start-up load is still not high. Due to insufficient follow-up orders, some enterprises in the north are expected to reduce their losses in the later period after the order before the production year. Enterprises mostly receive goods according to orders, and have no willingness to stock raw materials for the time being, and wait for terminal orders. In terms of product inventory: some large enterprises have slightly higher product inventory. The start-up of the industry is maintained at 3.5-50%, and only some in Xinjiang are in a state of parking. The market has certain expectations for after March, but most of them are concentrated in the aspect of guaranteed delivery buildings, and new starts are still relatively weak.

 
From the perspective of raw materials, the domestic calcium carbide market as a whole bottomed out and rebounded , and the ex-factory prices remained stable. The production enterprises are obviously out of storage, and the trade is actively getting goods. The downstream unloading trucks are regionally uneven, and the overall unloading trucks are high. At present, coal prices have bottomed out and rebounded, which strengthens the market's confidence in holding prices. 

On the whole, the domestic PVC market will continue to compete with supply and demand in the later period. PVC production enterprises will start operations slowly, and new production capacity will be released. The price of caustic soda has fallen, the industry's profit expectations are under pressure, the cost pressure is superimposed on the forward maintenance season, the market supply may weaken, and the market price fluctuates.

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