As of October 13, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method PVC in East China market was 6,350 yuan/ton, and ethylene method PVC was 6,600 yuan/ton; The pre-sale orders of PVC manufacturers increased month-on-month; the inventories of manufacturers increased month-on-month.
This week's PVC market forecast
After the 11th long holiday, the domestic PVC production enterprises will restart with the maintenance and repair enterprises, and the market supply is expected to increase slightly. Due to the holiday of some downstream pipe profiles and floor enterprises during the festival, the purchase will resume after the festival, and the industry inventory is expected to go to the warehouse slightly. The raw material calcium carbide festival After the continuous rise, the cost support is expected to increase, and it is expected that the price focus of the PVC market will increase slightly after the holiday.
① Analysis of domestic PVC market
Last week, the domestic PVC price rose first and then fell, but it has increased compared with the pre-holiday price. Returning after the holiday, driven by the five consecutive rises of crude oil and the resumption of driving in the downstream, the market trading atmosphere was active and prices rose. However, the downstream is more resistant to the high-priced supply, coupled with the high social inventory, the market is not buying enough, and the wait-and-see attitude is restored. Up to now, the market price has increased by 20-70 yuan / ton from the pre-holiday period, but the industry is not optimistic about the market outlook for the time being, and it is expected that the price will continue to decline.
② International PVC market price analysis
During the November long holiday, spot transactions in the Asian PVC market were light. With the end of the monsoon in India and the rainy season in Southeast Asia, market demand is expected to improve, but real estate activity and infrastructure demand may slow due to inflation and recession concerns. Export competition in target markets such as India, the Middle East and Latin America is expected to intensify due to the arrival of more competitive US ocean cargoes in the market in recent weeks. Due to the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar, India has reduced the attractiveness of its imports. In addition to the quotation from the United States, there has been no new quotation recently. However, the US quotation has not been accepted, and its supply is concentrated in the end of November or December. The market expects that new quotations may continue to weaken in November, and European PVC demand has fallen sharply year-on-year, which is affected by economic and structural changes brought about by high inflation and energy costs in the eurozone.
Two、Production and sales of polyvinyl chloride
❶Analysis of the start-up of PVC enterprises and the operation of equipment
Last week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased by 2.11% month-on-month to 75.46%, a year-on-year increase of 6.85%; among which the calcium carbide method decreased by 1.69% month-on-month to 74.75%, a year-on-year increase of 6.85%, and the ethylene method decreased by 3.55% month-on-month to 77.94%, a year-on-year increase of 5.62% %.
❷The start-up of PVC downstream products enterprises
Last week, there was little change in the start-up of PVC products enterprises, and there was no obvious direction for the time being. The enterprises mainly maintained normal operation. From the perspective of profile companies, the current performance of northern and central China is acceptable, but the factory is cautious about later orders; although the southern region is not affected by winter weather, the domestic demand is average, and subsequent orders are weak. According to the research Information, in terms of raw materials of profile companies, some companies wait and see more after taking orders at low prices before the holiday, and the inventory cycle ranges from 15-22 days. In terms of product inventory: maintaining a medium-to-upper position, the pressure on partial shipments is still there. In terms of start-up: maintain more than 4-60% of the start-up load, and ensure that the order is delivered.
Three、Industrial chain of PVC market
ⅠPrice analysis of domestic PVC industry chain last week
◆Crude oil: In the last cycle, international oil prices showed a downward trend. As of October 12, the price of WTI was US$87.27 per barrel, down 0.56% from October 5; the price of Brent was US$92.45 per barrel, down 1% from October 5. International oil prices fell last week, the core negative is: the US dollar index has repeatedly hit new highs, and the market's worries about economic recession have continued unabated.
◆Vinyl chloride: China's domestic market demand is weak, the downstream PVC price fluctuates, and the vinyl chloride price is temporarily stable. The mainstream vinyl chloride enterprises in East China offer 5700-5900 yuan / ton.
◆Calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market generally rose last week, and the mainstream trade price in Wuhai was 3800-3850 yuan/ton. The end of the National Day, the impact of the epidemic in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia has led to increased pressure on enterprises to start construction and transportation. In the early stage of the market, it is difficult to resume production, and the PVC maintenance is completed, the downstream demand is increased, and the shortage of supply is aggravated. Although the price of PVC continues to be weak, the price of caustic soda has been rising one after another, and the enthusiasm of chlor-alkali enterprises to start construction has not diminished. In the short term, it still depends on the development and changes of the epidemic. It is more difficult for workers to resume work and production, and it is difficult to shut down the equipment in the early stage to resume production. Therefore, the price of calcium carbide is still supported. However, in the face of the continuous weakness of PVC, the rise is blocked. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will mainly rise this week, but the growth rate will slow down.
Four、The market outlook of PVC
1.Supply forecast: At present, there are not many routine maintenance companies, but due to the impact of public health events in the northwest region, some logistics have been stagnant, which has hindered the shipment of calcium carbide and PVC, affecting the start of some enterprises, especially in Xinjiang, where it is difficult to start construction in the short term, and the calcium carbide mining method outside the east Enterprises are under pressure to start at a low level, and supply is expected to continue to decline slightly.
2.Demand forecast: There is little change in the start-up of PVC products enterprises, and there is no obvious direction for the time being. The enterprises mainly maintain normal operation. From the perspective of profile companies, the current performance of northern and central China is acceptable, but the factory is cautious about later orders; although the southern region is not affected by winter weather, the domestic demand is average, and subsequent orders are weak. Export demand: With the Indian monsoon expected to end and Southeast Asia expected to end, market demand is expected to improve, but real estate activity and infrastructure demand may slow due to inflation and recession concerns. Recently, due to the impact of low-priced US supply, export competition has intensified.
3.Cost analysis: The transportation pressure in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased. It was difficult to shut down the calcium carbide plant in the early stage and resume production, so the price of calcium carbide is still supported.
Inventory analysis: The inventory of the PVC industry continues to be restocked. Last week, it was affected by stocking before the holiday. After the holiday, with the demand stable in October, although the inventory is expected to remain high, the policy will be implemented in October, and the inventory is expected to be restocked slightly.
4.On the whole, domestic PVC will still run weakly. The upstream factories need to pay attention to the logistics impact of the main production area due to the public health event, and the changes in the start of PVC production, and there is no increase in the supply side for the time being. In terms of the market, social inventories continued to be high, and traders continued to focus on price-based shipments. Affected by the decrease in product orders, the start of construction remained low, and the demand for PVC was limited. It is expected that the PVC market price will continue to run weakly this week.
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