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Home > News > Industry News

Brief analysis of the trend of my country's PVC market in the first three quarters

Author : HAODIBAN

Update time : 2022-11-01 12:00:00

In the first three quarters of 2022, the overall trend of the domestic PVC market is relatively sluggish. In the first quarter, under the strong support of costs and exports, the market can still maintain a relatively high level. After entering the second quarter, under the influence of a series of factors such as limited demand for PVC, extreme weather, and power and production restrictions, the domestic demand for PVC terminals continued to be sluggish, and the market experienced a rapid decline and fluctuated near the cost line. At the end of September, the average domestic transaction price of ethylene-based PVC was 6,443 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of calcium carbide method PVC was 6,282 yuan/ton, down 2,465 yuan/ton and 2,079 yuan/ton from the average price at the beginning of the year, with a drop of more than 20%.

In the first three quarters, the release of new domestic PVC production capacity was limited, and the supply did not see a significant increase, but the demand side shrank to a certain extent compared with the same period last year. On the one hand, the performance of the real estate market in the first half of the year was average. Although the policy of "guaranteeing the handover of buildings" was introduced in the second half of the year, the direct demand stimulus for PVC in a short period of time was relatively limited. In the second quarter, the epidemic prevention and control efforts were strengthened. Downstream factories in East China were significantly restricted, and market transactions were almost stagnant. Downstream enterprises and traders were under greater cost and warehousing pressure. The continuous high temperature weather in the third quarter led to power and production restrictions, which had a greater impact on downstream factories in East China, South China and Southwest China. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the domestic PVC market demand continued to be sluggish.

PVC exports performed very well in the first half of the year. The monthly export volume from March to June was stable at more than 200,000 tons, which was an important supporting factor for the domestic market to maintain a high level in the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter. However, after entering the third quarter, due to the gradual recovery of PVC exports from the United States, direct competition with China's supply of goods has been formed in major consumer markets such as India and Southeast Asia, resulting in a significant decline in the activity of domestic PVC exports. At the same time, the price of the external market fell sharply, resulting in a sharp drop in domestic PVC export profits, and the enthusiasm of domestic manufacturers to accept orders decreased. The export volume in the fourth quarter may fall to about 100,000 tons per month.

In the PVC raw material market, compared with previous years, the domestic calcium carbide market continued to fluctuate at a high level. However, factors such as rising electricity prices and unstable supply of blue carbon made it difficult to alleviate the cost pressure of calcium carbide enterprises. The calcium carbide market basically fluctuated in a narrow range near the cost line. The international crude oil price fell from a high level, and the ethylene in Northeast Asia also fluctuated between US$800-850/ton after adjustment, which is difficult to form sufficient support for the PVC market.

Previous : PVC: The autumn inspection is over, the traditional peak season is over, can demand return later?

Next : Last week's review of the PVC market

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Brief analysis of the trend of my country's PVC market in the first three quarters