In the medium and long term, PVC is facing high supply pressure. In the form of the poor performance of the global economy and domestic real estate, domestic and foreign trade demand is weak, and the market price focus remains on a downward trend; in view of the high price of raw material calcium carbide, PVC manufacturers are faced with long-term Loss-making production, with the increase of losses, a few high-cost production enterprises are expected to reduce load or temporarily stop.
Before the National Day, domestic PVC sales remained sluggish, the demand for new real estate construction and the long holiday of downstream factories have weakened the demand for stocking in the market; foreign demand was also lower than expected, especially after the end of the rainy season in India. The export volume decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, and the demand for domestic and foreign trade was insufficient to support the PVC market. After the holiday, the price of PVC rose briefly due to the rising oil price, but the futures rally was not good, and the market confidence was corrected, and the price of PVC was corrected again. So what is the trend of the PVC market in the later period?
From the perspective of downstream demand, the real estate market is still in a downward stage. From January to August, investment in real estate development decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month. At the same time, the year-on-year decline in the area of newly started construction and the area of land purchased by real estate development companies has expanded compared with the previous July. The structural adjustment of the real estate market continues, and various localities have introduced preferential policies, but it is difficult to significantly drive the short-term PVC demand, and the current real estate new construction data is still decreasing compared with last year, and the downstream long-term demand is not optimistic.
In addition, the supply has also increased significantly. At present, the equipment of PVC production enterprises has been overhauled and restarted, and the maintenance plan in October is relatively small. According to the preliminary statistics of Longzhong, the maintenance scale of PVC production enterprises in October was 2.41 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 70.65% and a year-on-year decrease. 68.54%, the market supply is expected to increase in the long run. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the PVC industry is maintained at a high level in the short term, and the long-term accumulation trend is still expected to remain at 542,900 tons.
On the cost side, the prices of upstream raw materials fluctuate. The high cost of raw material calcium carbide, such as coal, and the continuous increase in demand for downstream PVC construction are positive. The price of calcium carbide is expected to rise, and the price is expected to increase by 1.12% month-on-month. Facing the trend of high cost for a long time. Affected by the slowdown of the global economy and the weak demand for ethylene derivatives, the international price of ethylene has retreated from a high level. The lower ethylene price is good for domestic ethylene production enterprises, and the pressure on sales costs is reduced, but it is bad for the long-term market price to a certain extent, especially in the fourth quarter of .
In the medium and long term, PVC is facing high supply pressure. In the form of the poor performance of the global economy and domestic real estate, domestic and foreign trade demand is weak, and the market price focus remains on a downward trend; in view of the high price of raw material calcium carbide, PVC manufacturers are faced with long-term Loss-making production, with the increase of losses, a few high-cost production enterprises are expected to reduce load or temporarily stop.
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