In the medium term, the high inventory of PVC will continue until after the Spring Festival. Based on the consideration of the domestic double festival destocking demand in January and the release of V2301 delivery sources, the East China calcium carbide method 5 spot is operating at 5,900-6,100 yuan/ton.
Recently, the popularity of the PVC export market has begun to fade, the weekly signing volume of various enterprises has begun to fall, and the enthusiasm of foreign companies to receive goods has weakened. With the approach of the double festival, the fundamentals gradually dominate the market, and the weakening of foreign signings will put domestic pressure on it, and PVC prices will continue to be under pressure.
Reduce the amount of export orders, and focus on follow-up shipments
This week, the export signings of PVC production enterprises decreased to 21,700 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 64.6% from the previous month. During the week, the delivery volume of the source of goods increased, and some orders began to be actively delivered to complete the contract. The current FOB Tianjin Port quotation is US$780-820/ton, but it is difficult to make a deal above US$810/ton. Foreign companies do not accept the current price very much, and some are cautious about the arrival time in February.
As shown in the figure above, after entering January, downstream product companies will gradually enter the holiday stage, and this year, some companies are facing the burden reduction caused by the problem of employee arrival, which was clearly reflected in Central China and North China this week. From the perspective of orders from downstream product companies, the total orders of some companies have decreased by 30-40% year-on-year, and some have decreased by more than 50%. Generally, the orders in hand are poor. At the end of this month, some enterprises began to suspend work one after another for holidays, and still maintained a state of low operation, low raw material inventory, and low product inventory.
With the release of supply and demand pressure, PVC prices will come under pressure again
Looking at 2022, the rise of domestic PVC is mostly driven by expectations for the market outlook, and the decline is mostly due to the suppression of supply and demand. At present, we are facing a situation where supply is about to exceed demand, and from the perspective of current market participants’ price expectations and downstream acceptability, most of them are expected to be below 6,000 yuan/ton, so the market transaction atmosphere is affected by the large inventory background. Restricted, the overall price of PVC is easy to fall but difficult to rise.
To sum up, the domestic PVC fundamentals are in a negative state, and PVC lacks the rigid support of demand. In the short term, the price of PVC East China calcium carbide type 5 powder will run between 6,000-6,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the high inventory of PVC will continue until after the Spring Festival. Based on the consideration of the domestic double festival destocking demand in January and the release of V2301 delivery sources, the East China calcium carbide method 5 spot is operating at 5,900-6,100 yuan/ton.
HAODIBAN brand has rich trading experience, and has its own factories, laboratories, etc., focusing on the production of high-quality PVC flooring products. 
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