PVC is the main raw material of PVC flooring, and changes in supply and demand of raw materials will have a certain impact on PVC products produced with PVC raw materials. This article will briefly describe the recent situation of PVC supply and demand, as well as cost.
At the beginning of November, the domestic PVC weekly capacity utilization rate reached the lowest value so far in 2022. Afterwards, with the resumption of some PVC plants, the capacity utilization rate began to pick up slightly, followed by an increase in output.
At the same time, the global demand for it is showing a sluggish trend, and foreign companies have begun to focus on the largest demand - the Chinese market. The price advantage of foreign sources is greater, the import window has been opened, and the overall supply has increased.
However, the PVC demand market is not very optimistic. The adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy has given the PVC demand market a certain degree of confidence, but it has not yet shown a favorable impact on the PVC demand. Row".
★Supply side
According to the latest data this week, the weekly output of PVC was 387,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%. Among them, the output of calcium carbide method reached 290,200 tons, an increase of 0.79% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.95%; the output of ethylene method reached 97,100 tons, an increase of 10.40% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 15.83%.
This week, Yantai Wanhua, Guangdong Dongcao and other ethylene process plants resumed normal operation, and the ethylene process increased significantly, which led to an increase in the overall output of PVC.
With the recent decline in the cost and freight of PVC in Asia, the price of PVC is stable and may have a slight drop. The international market is waiting to see the impact of the adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy in mainland China. As the freight rate drops, raw materials from the United States are pouring into Asia. It is said that at present, there are cheap goods from different countries in China's main ports, the import window has been opened, and the supply has continued to increase.
★Demand side
Domestic real estate remains in the off-season, and orders from downstream product companies have not increased. Except for a few large-scale companies to promote inventory at the end of the year, most companies maintain normal production, and forward orders are not very optimistic at present. Overall, stock Less. Looking at the industry as a whole, in terms of raw materials, some bargain hunters pre-approach futures, mainly to seek low prices, and the inventory cycle ranges from 15 to 25 days. In terms of finished product inventory: the upper-middle position is maintained, and the pressure on shipments still exists. In terms of start-up: 40-60% of the start-up load will be maintained, and order delivery will be the main focus. As the weather gradually turns cold, the demand in the north will further shrink, and the demand for PVC may continue to run weakly.
★In terms of cost
Recently, domestic calcium carbide prices have fallen, which will ease the pressure on PVC costs. However, the profits of PVC companies mining calcium carbide in the east are still negative, and they are in a state of loss. In terms of the ethylene method, Asian vinyl chloride monomer continued to drop by 40-70 US dollars this week, and the domestic vinyl chloride market price is expected to be lowered next week. The profits of foreign mining vinyl chloride companies are expected to improve, but they are still on the profit and loss line. Generally speaking, the cost pressure of PVC is still high, and marginal enterprises continue to face losses.
From the overall situation of the supply and demand market, the domestic PVC supply continues to be loose, and some new production capacity may be launched in the later period, and the PVC production is expected to increase. However, the demand side is expected to be difficult to change in the short term, and the downstream will continue to maintain rigid demand procurement. , accompanied by certain restocking pressure. At the same time, it is estimated that the loss phenomenon cannot be reversed in the short term. The domestic PVC market continues to "move forward with a heavy load", and the price remains low.
The above is a brief overview and simple analysis of the supply and demand side of PVC, as well as some situations in terms of cost, which can be used as a reference for whether to buy PVC flooring.
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