After the festival, the domestic PVC market continues to be on the high side, and the industry is still optimistic about the future PVC market.
At present, the performance of the Chinese PVC market returning to the market after the festival is average, and downstream product companies have not yet concentrated on returning to the market for purchases, and the start-up and order status continue to be in the off-season. The rise of futures before the festival has added a lot of heat to the market, and the supply of goods in the market has a tendency to increase compared with that before the festival. PVC industry players express their opinions on the spot market in the beginning of the year.
As of statistics, the preliminary statistics of PVC social inventory increased by 26% month-on-month. The Spring Festival affected downstream consumption to stagnate, and the third-party warehouse inventory in the market was dominated by accumulation.
❶From the supply side
During the Spring Festival, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises decreased by 0.43% month-on-month to 76.74%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10%; among them, the calcium carbide method decreased by 0.62% month-on-month to 75.61%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.18%, and the ethylene method increased by 0.28% month-on-month to 80.84%, an increase of 9.41% year-on-year. %. Among them, the foreign mining calcium carbide PVC production enterprises decreased by 1.03% to 60.04% compared with the pre-holiday period. The supply side has decreased, which has a certain supporting effect on the spot market.
❷From the aspects of PVC raw materials and demand
After the festival, the price of calcium carbide still shows a rising trend. With the recovery of profits, the enthusiasm of calcium carbide manufacturers to start work has increased significantly. However, the start-up of PVC terminal manufacturers continues to be sluggish. East China and South China are recovering one after another, but the overall start-up level is still in the off-season state. Downstream work in North China, Central China and other regions is slow to resume work. The overall demand may enter normal levels in mid-February.
In short, the domestic PVC market continued to start at a relatively high level after the festival. It is certain that the industry is still optimistic about the PVC market in the future. The specific market trend needs to pay more attention to the resumption of downstream industries and the trend of social inventory accumulation. Under the influence of macro and other factors, it is expected that the short-term domestic PVC market will continue to maintain a high level of consolidation.
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