The recovery of confidence in the economy before the Spring Festival is good, the industry is expected to be boosted, and the macro level continues to support. The fundamentals of PVC spot remain weak, and the supply remains high, but the demand is weakened by the festival, and the industry is full of stocks. It is expected that before the festival, the spot price of calcium carbide type 5 in East China will remain in the range of 6200-6400, mainly at buy-it-yourself price. The supply of ethylene method is tight, and the quotation remains firm.
Under the support of favorable macro policies and positive demand expectations, the PVC market went up, and the spot tentatively rose. However, the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality still exists, the downside space on the supply side is limited, the terminal enters the holiday, and the export market gradually weakens, or it will come to an end in February. Follow-up attention will be paid to the export delivery situation and the trend of downstream orders.
1. With the coming of the Spring Festival, social warehouses are accumulating, and factory warehouse transfers show destocking
According to statistics, in the near future, the preliminary statistics of the inventory of PVC production enterprises in the warehouse decreased month-on-month, and the pre-holiday transportation resumed and the source of goods was transferred to the market for storage, and the inventory of factories and warehouses decreased month-on-month. Preliminary statistics on PVC third-party inventory are expected to increase by 12% month-on-month; terminal demand has weakened, and upstream sources of goods are shipped to third-party warehouses in the market before the festival. The short-term trend of social inventory is still dominated by accumulation.
2. During the traditional off-season, the demand decreases, and terminals are on holiday one after another
At present, the start-up of domestic PVC product enterprises continues to decline. Most enterprises have started the Spring Festival holiday, and only a few enterprises still maintain operation. The holiday cycle of enterprises is from January 1st to February 5th. In previous years, it was more than 3 days in advance.
3. The operating rate of PVC continues to increase, and the demand for raw material calcium carbide is smooth
From the analysis of raw material calcium carbide and downstream demand, calcium carbide production enterprises shipped smoothly, but the supply of goods was tight, and the downstream trucks to be unloaded continued to be tight at low levels. The cost pressure of the calcium carbide method is expected to continue to increase; the raw material vinyl chloride is temporarily stable, so the cost of ethylene-based PVC is expected to be stable.
On the whole, the recovery of confidence in the economy before the Spring Festival is good, the industry is expected to be boosted, and the macro level continues to support. The fundamentals of PVC spot remain weak, and the supply remains high, but the demand is weakened by the festival, and the industry is full of stocks. It is expected that before the festival, the spot price of calcium carbide type 5 in East China will remain in the range of 6200-6400, mainly at buy-it-yourself price. The supply of ethylene method is tight, and the quotation remains firm.
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