The unloading of raw material calcium carbide continues to be low, the atmosphere of price increase is aggravated, cost support is expected to increase, and the market price of PVC will continue to fluctuate in the later stage.
Before the New Year's Day holiday, Shandong's PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. The prices in the factory area were temporarily stabilized and wait-and-see. After the New Year's Day, the PVC market rose slightly. Affected by the overall rise in commodity prices, the market transaction price boost was limited. However, the spot transaction was weak. The center of gravity of the five-type transaction price of the calcium carbide method in East China was in the range of 6160-6250, and the ethylene method was temporarily maintained. Stalemate, pre-sale forward futures are the main source, there are not many spot inquiries, and market transactions are negotiable.
In terms of the current operating rate of upstream enterprises, there are a total of 9 PVC production enterprises in Shandong, and the current operating rate of PVC enterprises in Shandong is 84.68%. Shandong Dongyue and Taiwen Salt Chemical's PVC plants are still shutting down, and the start-up time is to be determined; Lutai Chemical has started 70% of its production, which has increased compared with the previous period; Xinfa's new plant continues to be trial-produced, and the old plant remains in normal operation; Dezhou Plant Hua's mercury-free plant started up last week, but the output was not high. In addition, the production capacity of 1 million tons in Qingdao Bay is currently operating normally. On the whole, the start of construction in Shandong is acceptable, and the supply is loose.
In terms of sales, the sales situation of enterprises in Shandong area improved before the New Year's Day, and the pre-sale volume of some enterprises increased significantly, mainly driven by the export market. Better, the export orders of some enterprises are pre-sold until around February.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of PVC enterprises in Shandong increased month-on-month last week, mainly due to the recent high market prices, the downstream is more resistant to high prices, and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods is not high. Demand is good, while the export market is strong, and corporate inventories have remained low. However, domestic demand has been running weak this year, resulting in high inventories.
On the downstream side, the start-up of PVC products enterprises is still not high, and some enterprises have difficulties in finding jobs. In terms of raw materials, the willingness to receive orders is not high, and some are still resistant to high prices, and the inventory cycle ranges from 12 to 26 days. In terms of product inventory: the inventory cycle ranges from 15 to 30 days, and some of them are orders to be delivered. The start-up maintains a load of 4-5%, and some have lower loads. Looking at the industry as a whole, the holiday plans of product companies before the Spring Festival are mostly in early January and last until the end of January.
On the whole, the supply in Shandong is loose, but due to the impact of holidays, downstream enterprises are gradually increasing. After the New Year’s Day, the purchases will continue to be low-priced purchases. The industry’s inventory is expected to continue to increase. The raw material calcium carbide continues to be low. Cost support is expected to increase, and the PVC market price will continue to fluctuate in the later period.
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