Industry information: How is the PVC market in the near future?

After mid-May, the PVC market still showed obvious upward pressure. The current bottom of the market is still affected by the cost and the low profit of chlor-alkali.

When there is no case where PVC companies take the initiative to lower the negative insurance price, the market will remain weak.
 

In the early stage, the international oil price fell sharply, WTI fell below 70 US dollars / barrel, and the worries brought about by the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States continued.Together with the weak domestic commodities, the PVC period now has a double decline.
 

The spring inspection concentration period has passed, and PVC production is still at a high level

 Weekly output of 70 PVC manufacturers in China

 Tons

At present, only the weekly output of domestic PVC enterprises has dropped significantly in the two weeks from April 21 to 28, mainly due to the centralized maintenance of PVC enterprises in the spring inspection. It is expected that the output of PVC in May will be greater than that in April, and the supply is still at a high level.
 

Product companies have insufficient follow-up orders, and demand will gradually weaken

 
In 2023, domestic PVC product companies will start operations earlier than in previous years, and they will perform better in terms of the speed of start-up load increase, exceeding the level of the same period in 2022.

However, after entering April, the start-up of PVC products companies will fall, mainly due to the increase in follow-up orders. insufficient.

In terms of industries, pipe companies have overdraft demand after the spring promotion, and will enter the off-season of the industry after June; profile companies are facing the dual pressure of real estate shrinkage and broken bridge aluminum competition; After a period of concentration, industry activity weakens.

Judging from the current main consumption categories, the above three have reduced demand, but relying solely on sheet materials and medical care is not enough to drive the market, so the subsequent demand reduction will gradually reflect.

The domestic PVC spring inspection is limited, and the PVC industry will still maintain 70% or more of the start-up in the later period. In addition, downstream demand, both domestic and foreign, has downward expectations. After mid-May, the PVC market still shows obvious upward pressure.

The current bottom of the market is still affected by the cost and the low profit of chlor-alkali. When there is no case where PVC companies take the initiative to lower the negative insurance price, the market will remain weak.

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