According to recent observations, the overall performance of China's PVC market first fell and then rose slightly. At the end of August, affected by the downstream power and production restrictions, the transaction center of each distribution center fell again. At the end of the second quarter, the market fell rapidly. As far as PVC products are concerned, some Chinese manufacturers entered losses. After that, the supply of raw material calcium carbide was tight, the cost pressure continued to increase, and the start of PVC plant was reduced, which eased the contradiction between market supply and demand, and promoted the gradual recovery of China's PVC market since early July. Stimulated by the national policy of "guaranteeing the handover of buildings", the downstream construction has resumed, and the PVC market is expected to be better. However, after entering August, continuous high temperatures occurred in various places, and the measures to protect the people's electricity led to the limited start-up load of some chlor-alkali enterprises and downstream factories, and the market once again entered a shock. The impact of power curtailment and production curtailment gradually weakened in the last week of August, and the recovery of downstream construction provided some support for the market recovery in the later period.
China PVC market trend chart
The main factors affecting the current trend of China's PVC market include:
1. The price of raw materials fell from a high level.
Since mid-July, China's calcium carbide supply has been in a state of tight supply due to the production reduction caused by high temperature, and the market has continued to rise. Taking the main producing areas in Northwest China as an example, the mainstream delivery price has risen from about 3,900 yuan/ton in mid-July to more than 4,100 yuan/ton in early August, but since mid-August, due to the relatively concentrated drop in downstream chlor-alkali plants Due to the negative production reduction, the price of calcium carbide has also dropped significantly, with a drop of more than 400 yuan / ton within a week, and even the delivery price of about 3,500 yuan / ton in the main producing areas in the northwest. After entering September, China's calcium carbide market has stabilized, and the ex-factory quotation in Northwest China has recovered to between 3650-3700 yuan / ton, while the main consumption areas in North China and Central China continue to be low and stable, and the delivery price remains at 3900-4150 yuan / ton .
2. Exports decreased month-on-month, and domestic demand market pressure increased.
According to the latest customs statistics, China imported 26,500 tons of pure PVC powder and exported 176,900 tons in July. Although the monthly export volume still increased significantly compared with last year, the month-on-month decrease was 20.8%. In particular, the recent emergence of low-priced goods in the international market has affected my country's PVC orders in the Southeast Asian market.
3. Long-term demand expectations are cautiously optimistic.
"Securing the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood" has set the tone for the development of China's real estate industry in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to the PVC market demand. But at the same time, it should be noted that a series of negative factors such as repeated epidemics in many places and reduction of foreign trade orders for products have also had a certain impact on China's PVC demand.
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